Paul Skenes, the Pirates' ace, has seen his fastball velocity drop from 98.1 mph to 97 mph this season.
This decline has raised concerns about the team's performance.

What happened?

The Pittsburgh Pirates are having a successful season, but there is reason for concern.
Paul Skenes has gone from a Cy Young candidate to just a very good ace.

Why it matters for Paul Skenes

According to Baseball Savant, 14 qualified National League pitchers have had their fastball velocity drop at least 1 MPH from 2025 to 2026.
Three are Pirates, including Skenes.

Carmen Mlodzinski has seen his fastball drop from 96.0 mph on average to 94.7 mph for a 1.3 mph decrease.
Mitch Keller was throwing his fastball at 93.7 mph last year, but this season it's down to 92.6 mph.

What comes next?

Skenes' decline in velocity is a worrying trend, especially if a postseason spot is in play.
If he can start picking up the pace on his fastball, concerns can be squashed.

The Pirates' Cy Young winner has a 3.10 ERA this season with 114 strikeouts.
This is a solid season, but the underlying fastball metric is concerning.

Add in Keller and Mlodzinski also seeing their fastball decrease by at least 1.0 mph in 2026 from their 2025 figure, and it's hard not to worry.
The decrease in velocity isn't the sole reason for Keller and Skenes regressing this season.

Mlodzinski is pitching better this year than he did a year ago, but it is still a worrying number for these Pirates pitchers.
Alex Stumpf of Book-Rule Bucs shared this information on X via Baseball Savant.

The Pirates will need to keep an eye on this trend as the season progresses.
Skenes' ability to pick up the pace on his fastball will be crucial to the team's success.

Skenes went from throwing 98.1 mph fastballs on average during the 2025 season to averaging 97 mph on his fastball in 2026.
This decline has sparked concern about the team's performance.

The Pirates are having a more successful season in 2026 than they've had in recent years.
But there is still reason for concern, especially with Skenes' decline in velocity.