Paul Skenes is in a slump. For the Pittsburgh Pirates' rookie ace, that means an ERA that has crept above 3.00 for the first time since his call-up. Over his last three starts, Skenes has allowed 11 earned runs in 17 innings — a 5.82 ERA that looks jarring next to his season-long 2.45 mark.

The numbers are still elite by normal standards. But for a pitcher who opened his career with a 1.96 ERA across 23 starts, this is a real dip. The question is why.

What’s changed for Paul Skenes?

The biggest shift is in his fastball command. Skenes’ four-seamer, which averages 99.1 mph, has lost its usual precision. In June, he’s throwing it in the zone only 48% of the time, down from 54% in April and May. Batters are laying off pitches they used to chase.

His signature “splinker” — the split-finger sinker hybrid — is also getting less swing-and-miss. Opponents are hitting .286 against it over the last two weeks, compared to .189 for the season. That pitch was his out weapon. Now it’s getting barreled.

Is it mechanical or mental?

Pirates pitching coach Oscar Marin told reporters after Skenes’ start on June 28 that the rookie is “leaking open” in his delivery. That means his front shoulder is flying toward first base, pulling his arm slot down and leaving fastballs up in the zone.

Skenes himself said it’s a small fix. “Just getting back to my rhythm,” he said after a 5-3 loss to the Braves on June 25, where he gave up four runs in six innings. “I feel fine. The ball just isn’t coming out where I want it right now.”

How do the Guardians and league offense fit in?

The original article also covers the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen issues and a league-wide offensive surge. Those contexts matter for Skenes. The Guardians, who Skenes faced on June 18, tagged him for three runs in five innings — his shortest outing of the month.

And the league is hitting .254 in June, the highest monthly average since 2021. That makes every pitcher’s life harder. But Skenes’ struggles are more about his own execution than a league trend.

What comes next for Paul Skenes?

Skenes is scheduled to start July 5 against the Philadelphia Phillies. That’s a tough matchup — the Phillies lead the NL in runs per game. But it’s also a chance to reset.

He’s still striking out 11.2 batters per nine innings. His stuff is still electric. The question is whether he can tighten the mechanics before the All-Star break. If he does, this slump becomes a footnote. If not, the Pirates might need to give him an extra day of rest.

Either way, Paul Skenes remains the most watched pitcher in baseball. Every start is an event. Right now, it’s just a slightly less dominant one.